• Safwan AMM
• 20 November, 2025

Why Every Business Needs to Know Its Doomsday Scenarios

In today’s fast-changing world, businesses don’t fail overnight. They fail because leaders don’t see the danger coming. In Sri Lanka and around the world, markets are shifting fast — from climate impacts to new technologies like AI. If we don’t stay alert, even a strong brand can collapse silently.

That’s why every business owner must understand their doomsday scenarios — the serious risks that can shake or end their business. Knowing these risks early doesn’t create fear; it creates power. It helps us stay prepared, flexible and future-ready.

1. Recognition: Identify What Can Break Your Business

Most leaders worry in general but rarely list their real threats.

A smart leader clearly identifies the top 5 things that can kill their business.

Example:

A popular snack manufacturer focuses heavily on AI and automation. Good step. But their real doomsday threat is actually the country’s shift toward healthier eating habits and global shortages in ingredients like cocoa and spices.
If they ignore this, their entire product line can become outdated.

Case Study Insight:

Just like Intel missed the early generative AI boom and lost market share, any company can miss the next big change if they are not watching the market carefully.

2. Acceptance: Treat the Threat as Real

Recognizing a threat is easy. Accepting it is the hardest part.

Sometimes leaders downplay issues because:

• it’s uncomfortable
• change is costly
• they believe “it won’t happen to us”

Example:

A retail shop sees more customers moving to online purchasing. Instead of adapting, they assume “people will always visit physical shops.” Five years later, their walk-in sales drop drastically.

Case Study Insight:

Tech companies once thought regulations would never affect them. Now, global laws around data, privacy and children’s safety are reshaping social media platforms. Waiting too long can be dangerous.

3. Action: Have a Clear Survival Plan

Real leadership begins when action starts.

Planning ahead gives control even during uncertainty.

Example:

A seafood exporter sees climate-related fishing disruptions happening more often. Instead of waiting, they diversify into:

• inland fish,
• processed products,
• and value-added packaging.

When the next supply shortage hits, they survive while competitors struggle.

Case Study Insight:

Microsoft stayed successful for decades because they always transformed early — from the internet era to today’s AI era. Early action is what protects a brand.

The Power of a Near-Death Experience

Some companies become stronger after facing a major crisis.
A business that nearly collapses often develops a “never again” mindset.

Example:

A textile factory once lost half its income because of a foreign supplier issue. They recovered by:

• building multiple supplier networks,
• improving forecasting, and
• reducing dependency on one market.

Today, that company expands even during downturns.

This is how great brands grow — not by luck, but by learning from danger.

Final Message to Business Leaders

If you want your business to survive the next decade, ask yourself:

1. What are the five biggest threats that can kill us?

2. Do we honestly accept that these risks are real?

3. Do we have a practical plan to protect the company?

Future-focused leadership is not about fear.
It’s about preparedness, clarity and disciplined action.

Stay alert.
Stay flexible.
Stay ready for tomorrow.